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Broughton, R. S. & Spottiswoode, J. P. (2000). Periodicities in
Archived Card-Guessing Data: Preliminary Report on a Large Database. Proceedings of Presented Papers: The Parapsychological Association 43rd Annual
Convention,(pp. 48-57).
Abstract
Previous investigations by Spottiswoode have shown a) that
anomalous cognition or ESP is greatly enhanced during a narrow window of local
sidereal time (LST), an astronomical measure which indicates-which slice, of
heavens is overhead at that time and b) an expected negative correlation
between ESP and geomagnetic fluctuation (the ap index) is significantly
strengthened during that same window of LST time. Less dramatic effects in the
data indicate possible additional periodicities, such as a reduction of scoring
during other LST periods These findings suggest that there may be physical
moderators of ESP performance of unknown, but possibly celestial or solar/geomagnetic
origin. These findings were based on a database of nearly 3,000 trials of
free-response data from remote viewing and ganzfeld experiments.
To follow up on these findings the authors drew upon the
archives of the Duke University Parapsychology Laboratory to compile a
database of good quality, relatively standard ESP experiments that exhibited
strong overall evidence of ESP. Sixteen datasets from recognized card-guessing
experiments of 1930s contributed a total of 7,167 runs, mostly from two
laboratories. The combined z-score for these data is 18.79.
Effect sizes were calculated and plotted in LST space using
a sliding two-hour window as in the previous investigations. Similarly,
Spearman's p was calculated in a two-hour sliding window and plotted in LST
space. The effect size (ESP scoring) data revealed two periods of
significantly enhanced scoring and two periods of depressed scoring that were
similar, but not exactly the same as those found in the free-response data.
The correlation with ap was p = .036 (p(2t) = .002). This positive
correlation is contrary to the expected weak negative correlation found in
other ESP data, however the plot in LST space revealed that the correlation
turns negative opposite the main peaks of ESP scoring, similar to what
Spottiswoode had observed earlier. These findings do not confirm Spottiswoode's
specific finding of a high-scoring window centered on LST 13.5±1h but they do
suggest the presence of an LST-related influence on ESP performance that needs
further elucidation.
Several additional analyses made possible by the large
database explored more common periodicities as the month, day of the week, and
hour of the day in which the tests were conducted. May and September stood out
as the best months for ESP testing while January and February were the poorest.
Monday held a strong advantage among the weekdays and early afternoon seems
the best time of day for testing. These suggestive findings make sense in
terms of human performance.
Further investigations are continuing and caution is noted regarding the
need to disentangle the time of day and time of year effects from LST effects
to avoid artifacts.
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