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The goose that laid the silver eggs: A criticism of psi and silver futures forecasting. |
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Por Administrator
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10 de setembro de 2004 |
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Harary, K. (1992). The goose that laid the silver eggs: A criticism of psi and silver futures forecasting. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 86, (pp. 375-409).
Abstract
Many confusing and contradictory reports concerning the attempted application of associative remote viewing to predicting fluctuations in the price of silver futures have appeared in recent years. These reports, all concerning the interpretation of a series of informal trials conducted in 1982 and 1983 by the now defunct Delphi Associates partnership, have also been characterized by a great deal of misguided speculation. Despite the informal nature of the Delphi trials, they have often been inaccurately described as though they comprised a formal experimental series followed by a formal attempt at replication. In addition, a popular mythology has emerged surrounding these trials to the effect that the Delphi effort supposedly involved a superb manifestation of claimed "psychic abilities" followed by a devastating failure that (a) statistically canceled out the earlier results, (b) represented the intervention of some mysterious cosmic/spiritual law, (c) occurred as a result of a psychological breakdown of the remote-viewing process and/or (d) represented a manifestation of the theoretical concept known as displacement. In the author's opinion, all such interpretations are misguided and are based upon flawed logic and misinformation about the nature and results of the original effort. Furthermore, a subsequent independent blind judging of essential data from a crucial trial suggests that the displacement hypothesis may not be an appropriate interpretation of the results of this session. Instead, the outcome may be the result of certain methodological and other deficiencies underlying the Delphi effort
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