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Broughton. R. & Bourgeois, R.(2001)
Exploring a Tool for Identifying Intuitive Talent for Pratical Decision-Making. Proceedings
of Presented Papers: The Parapsychological Association 44th Annual Convention.
(pp. 25-37).
Abstract
Many research and anecdotal reports point to the concept of intuition as a
means by which psychic functioning merges with normal information processing to
produce effective decision-making and assessment under conditions of
insufficient sensory information. In business, intuition is increasingly valued
as a way to deal with a world of greater choices, massive information overload,
and less time to screen alternatives. Mainstream psychology has traditionally
viewed intuition as simply a rapid or unusual use of our standard complement of
cognitive functions. Many anecdotal accounts, however, contain prominent
elements that cannot be fitted into that model and seem to fall in the domain of
parapsychology. Converging lines of research from intuition studies, anecdotal
material and parapsychological research support an effort to identify "intuitively
advantaged" individuals by creating talent identification tools suitable
for eventual deployment in the workplace.
As an initial exploration in this area we have developed the "Intuitive
Market Trader," (IMT) a computerized stock market simulation employing a
simple "buy low-sell high" strategy using shares from a selection of
imaginary companies. Behind the simulation is a binary precognition test based
on 200,000 trials with a Marsaglia pseudorandom number generator. In this
exploratory research we examine the effectiveness of three different methods of
data analysis for the purposes of talent identification. Two of these methods
are "pure psi" methods and one is a hybrid that combines psi
information with normal information. The hybrid method embodies how
decision-making functions in the real world, however it is subject to the
statistical problem of optional stopping and cannot be used as evidence of psi
ability as such. Along with the IMT we administered Taggart's Personal Styles
Inventory (PSI), a 30-item test that assesses six information-processing modes
and leads to a classification of rational or intuitive. This test is aimed at
business and workplace situations.
Data were obtained from a total of 77 participants, 39 males and 38 females,
from a wide range of professions and occupations. Overall scoring was at a rate
of 50.02%, which resulted in z = 2.394, p(2t) = .017. This amounts to a binary
trial effect size of 6.1 x 10-4.
Using a single-mean t-test for a subject-based
analysis the overall result is t
= 1.828, df
= 76, p= .071. The principal pure psi analysis
identified two participants who produced significant results (2-scores of 1.99
and 2.78). The hybrid analysis, which capitalized on the effects of the
participants' sell decisions as well as buy decisions, identified seven
participants, including those identified by the first method. Individual PSI
factors did not correlate significantly with the results of the pure psi
analysis but the group of participants classified as Intuitive produced overall
significant scores, t = 2.072, df = 55,
p(2t) = .043, while the Rational group were close to chance, t
= 0.141, df
= 20, p = .889. The groups were not significantly
different from one another, however. The identification of two participants out
of 77 is not unexpected by chance, but it should be noted that one of those was
the only stock market day-trader in the group and the owner of a thriving small
business. The other person identified was his wife and business partner. In
addition to these, the hybrid analysis identified a number of high-performing
professionals in different fields. We regard this as an encouraging start for
talent-identification using business simulations and recommend further work that
collects a greater amount of data from each participant.
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